The real winner after the Syrian rebellion revealed | World | News
Assad’s fall was met with mass celebrations in Syria, but major powers are watching closely. (Image: Getty)
One major country is best placed to work with the new Syrian government after rebels toppled country’s brutal regime in a sensational lightning attack this week, according to an expert.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have been capturing major cities in the country since its offensive began in November, fighting alongside other opposition groups, including the Syrian National Army (SNA), which is backed by Turkey.
After capturing strongholds in Syria‘s Aleppo and Idlib provinces, the rebel forces captured the capital Damascus in early December, ending the oppressive 54-year rule of the Assad dynasty.
For the past 13 years, a civil war has ravaged the country, though analysts say it was actually a proxy war driven by global and regional powers including Russia, the US, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.
Various states have an interest in the strategically important country, which borders Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Israel and Lebanon.
Syria: Bashar Assad flees as rebels capture Damascus
But Middle East expert Dr Nader Hashemi believes one power is best placed to work with the new government, in whatever form it takes.
He told Express.co.uk “I think their biggest regional backer will be Turkey.While Turkey has officially listed the HTS as a terrorist organisation, that’s more formal than substantive.
“HTS has been running the northern province of Idlib for several years under Turkish protection. Turkey has close relationships with the HTS, and Turkey is really hoping to, I think, exploit this change of government in Syria to expand its influence in the new Syria that is emerging.
The expert added: “There’s huge business opportunities, economic opportunities, in the context of rebuilding a broken Syria that has been devastated by 15 years of war.
“Turkey also has an interest in returning the roughly four million Syrian refugees that are living in Turkey. Syria wants to have those people go back.”
For these reasons, Dr Hashemi believes Anakara is in the strongest position to support the HTS “both geographically and politically – and also ideologically”.
The academic, who is an Associate Professor of Middle East and Islamic Politics at Georgetown and director of the American university’s Alwaleed Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding, is “very sceptical” about the prospects of the new Syrian government working with Russia and allowing them to retain their bases in the country over Moscow’s backing of Assad.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Image: Getty)
He said: “Russia is viewed as a government that was deeply complicit in the oppression of the Syrian people under the old regime.
“What Russia did to save the Assad regime in 2015, and its bombing campaigns against Syrian rebel forces and the Syrian people. will not be soon forgotten.
“The fact that Russia has now given safe haven to Bashar al-Assad just deepens this feeling of betrayal and anger.”
Russia has two key military bases in the country and had been a stanch ally of Barshar al-Assad, intervening in the civil war to protect his regime.
Assad fled Damascus to Moscow as his government fell, and the Kremlin has since confirmed that he has been given safe haven there.
Dr Hashemi said one possible – but doubtful – scenario is that Russia gives up Assad in exchange for keeping their bases there, though he noted it’s not a strong possibility as “I think the mood in Syria now is very much a mood where Syrian people want to establish sovereignty over their territory, and they don’t want foreign intervention and foreign military bases.
“That applies both to Russia and the United States, and Turkey, and Israel, all of whom control different parts of Syria today, so I don’t think that’s an option on the table.”
Syrians stormed Assad’s palace as the regime he inherited from his father fell, (Image: Getty)
The US is keen to establish relations with the new Syrian administration, but has made clear its position of wanting to support a transition to democracy, whilst ensuring human rights of minorities are protected, inclusive governance, and a government that distances itself from terrorism.
Dr Hashemi said: “That’s the sticking point. Because the current leader of the HTS, Jolani, is on the US terrorism list. And the term ‘terrorism’ is not an objective category. It’s used by the United States and its allies to basically target any group that is opposing US interests in the region.
“So I suspect that that’s going to be a point of contention between the United States and this new government that’s emerging.
“It’s going to be a major sticking point because Syria needs to be rebuilt. It needs to have economic sanctions lifted, and it’s the United States that has imposed heavy economic sanctions on Syria, revolving around questions of terrorism.”
The opposition forces groups, led by Abu Mohammed al Jolani, have installed a transition government to run the country until March, as it navigates a chaotic post-Assad period.
Mohammed al Bashir has been named as the acting Prime Minister and it’s not yet clear what form the next administration will take.
On Sunday, US President Joe Biden said Assad’s fall is “a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country,” but “also a moment of risk and uncertainty”.
The incoming Commander-in-Chief Donald Trump, who returns to the Oval Office in January, made clear Syria’s next steps were not his concern.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, he wrote: “THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
