Tropical Depression 4 gets organized and is expected to strengthen

A storm south of Cuba was getting organized as it aimed for Florida’s west coast and the Gulf of Mexico, with federal forecasters saying it’s likely to become a tropical storm by late Saturday.

Until then, the front is being called Tropical Depression Four, with the name Debby available should it graduate to tropical storm.

Maximum sustained winds of 30 mph kept it below the 39 mph threshold for tropical storm status late Friday, but the National Hurricane Center said it would continue to strengthen. It was 75 miles south of Caibarien, Cuba, at 11 p.m. ET.

The front graduated from Potential Tropical Depression Four to Tropical Depression Four on Friday night as it gained strength over warm Caribbean waters.

It was “expected to become a tropical storm over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late Saturday,” the hurricane center said in an update late Friday.

The National Weather Service issued a tropical storm warning for the west coast of Florida, from its southern tip to Boca Grande. The warning means winds of 39 to 73 mph are expected in the next day or so, along with a storm surge, coastal flooding, and heavy rain.

Much of that area, including Tampa Bay, was also covered by a storm surge watch, which warns of the possibility of life-threatening flooding as coastal waters and other waterways flood and surge and move over dry land.

A tropical storm watch is also in effect for some areas, including the Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge.

The hurricane center said the front would hook north into the Gulf of Mexico and simmer off the west coast of Florida into early Sunday, bringing with it 1 to 4 feet of storm surge flooding, 4 to 8 inches of rain, and up to 12 inches of rain in some areas.

In Cuba, rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with some higher amounts possible, is possible in Cuba.

The depression would “continue strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend,” the hurricane center said.

The depression could be the fourth named storm of the North Atlantic hurricane season a little ahead of schedule, with the average date for a fourth named storm to develop being Aug. 15, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.

However, the northern hemisphere has otherwise been relatively quiet, he said on X last month. It produced six named storms by mid-July, the fewest through mid-July since 1969.